[extropy-chat] War Is Easy To Explain - Peace is Not

gts gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Wed Mar 14 17:15:07 UTC 2007

On Wed, 14 Mar 2007 01:16:59 -0400, Lee Corbin <lcorbin at rawbw.com> wrote:

> I doubt it.  The trend is just too unmistakable.

I think the trend toward peace is probably there, too. At least I  
certainly hope it is. Also I think your hypothesis about the increasing  
costs of war is an interesting and reasonable explanation for it if it  
exists. I'm merely questioning whether the downward trend in  
war-per-capita is meaningful evidence of it.

Have you examined the possible mathematical relationship to which I  
referred? Have you looked at the numbers? I don't have them, but I was  
hoping you might.

Even if you don't have the numbers, do you really doubt that the rate of  
growth in the number of war-capable nation-states about which we have any  
records has been lower than the rate of growth of population over the same  
time period? I find it difficult to imagine how this could not be true,  
and if it is true then we should expect to see a downward trend in  
war-per-capita over recorded history even if the general propensity of  
nations to wage war has remained unchanged.

Surely you agree that if the world population doubled tomorrow, it would  
not follow that humans had become half as war-like.


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