[ExI] BREAKPOINT: terrorists vs. transhumanists

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sat, May 19, 2007 at 12:31:39AM -0400, Amara D. Angelica wrote:
> Lee Corbin said:
> 
> >It's well to remember that 2012 is as close to us as 2002 was.  
> > I don't expect anything significantly more radical 
> > to happen in the next five years than in the past five.

Five wall clock years is not a long time, right now.
 
> The Law of Accelerating Returns 
> by Ray Kurzweil
> 
> An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is
> exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we

Yeah, if you cherry-pick you data, it can make it look that way.
Is everything exponential, or superexponential? No, unfortunately.

> won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be
> more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as

Early stages of an exponential function are indistinguishable from
a linear function. Guess where we are now.

> chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even

How about energy efficiency? How about travel speed? How about time
you spend working? The length of your vacation? The amount of land
you own? Your income? The quality of the education? Longevity?
Food production? Global death from hunger and disease? Perhaps not
so many exponentials there.

> exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades,
> machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The

Within how many decades, that's the point.

> Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a
> rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger

Or extinction.

> of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based
> humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the
> universe at the speed of light.

Making it sound like you invented it all: priceless.
 
> http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0134.html

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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