[ExI] how would Transhumanists cope if the Singularity did not happen in their lifetime?

[KAZ]

----- Original Message ----
From: John Grigg <desertpaths2003 at yahoo.com>
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, May 15, 2007 5:33:28 AM
Subject: [ExI] how would Transhumanists cope if the Singularity did not happen in their lifetime?


> I am very curious to see how things work out in the personal lives of present-day Transhumanists should the 
> Singularity not happen as hoped by the year 2030.  By that year many of the "older folks" among us will have 
> used (or be on the verge of using) the only option available for a possible escape from death, which would be 
> cryonic suspension.  While Ray Kurzweil came to his 2030 date for the Singularity by using Moore's law, 
> I'm sure he (and many others) found it comforting that this was a year within striking distance of his personal lifespan.  
 
Surely Kurzweil's wild guess is not an article of faith among transhumanists. Hopefully not even the actual prediction of a singularity, in general.

The singularity prediction is a fallacy, based upon static projection, essentially the same mistake Thomas Maltus made when claiming Great Britain would collapse under a massive population explosion by 1850.

In real life, there are so many dynamic factors in culture, technology, and reality itself that it's likely no such singularity will ever occur, however much I love Vernor Vinge.

As you guys have probably all heard, similar logic leads one to conclude that safety razors will have an infinite number of blades by 2015
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20070515/c5cd6ddc/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Infini-T.jpg
Type: image/pjpeg
Size: 25643 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20070515/c5cd6ddc/attachment.bin>