[ExI] how would Transhumanists cope, if the Singularity did nothappen in their lifetime?

[Stathis Papaioannou]

On 23/05/07, Jef Allbright <jef at jefallbright.net> wrote:

> > > And Malthus did not even mention another technological invention much
> less
> > > its improvements, birth control.
> > >
> >
> > He couldn't predict stuff that hadn't happened yet. That's the problem
> with
> > prediction.
> >
>
> I predict that John K Clark will suggest in his characteristically
> polite and sensitive way that you would do well to either qualify or
> expand on that claim.
>

John's point seems to be that we have taken account of the variables in a
more thorough way than Malthus did, so our predictions are likely to be
better. Maybe that's so, but we can't be sure that it's so.  Does anyone
know how (a) confidence in predicting the future and (b) accuracy of these
predictions has varied over time? My guess is, not much.

-- 
Stathis Papaioannou
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