[ExI] It's simply obvious, right?

[Giu1i0 Pri5c0]

Interesting example, I knew similar ones but not this one. I have not
done the simulation myself, but do not find the result too shocking.

Everyone who has played poker or casino games knows that probability
calculations are tricky and intuitive answers can be wrong.

If this is the profound principle you are referring to, I think (hope)
most people integrate it in their daily thinking already, without
giving it a deep philosophical meaning.

G.

On Nov 24, 2007 4:43 PM, Jef Allbright <jef at jefallbright.net> wrote:
> This TED video illustrates a difficulty at the core of much futurist discussion.
>
> The subject is not new, but it might as well be, for the resounding
> lack of progress acquiring an intuitive grasp of reasoning about
> uncertainty.
>
> Many will watch this video  -- it's from TED and therefore expected to
> be high quality.
>
> But how many will make the effort to integrate its very simple,
> profound principle into your daily thinking?  It's very simple, but
> not necessarily easy.
>
> How many of you will shake your head, "rationalize" that it's just a
> little too abstract, and go on arguing with passion and great
> certainty despite an obvious disqualification?
>
> Yes, I'm being quite tactless.  This is important, people!
>
> <http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/67>
>
> - Jef
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