[ExI] It's simply obvious, right?

[Thomas Oliver]

> Jef wrote:
>
> This TED video illustrates a difficulty at the core of much  
> futurist discussion.

Mark Hauser thinks evolution hard wired us for righeousness.
http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2007/05.03/15-hauser.html

> The subject is not new, but it might as well be, for the resounding
> lack of progress acquiring an intuitive grasp of reasoning about
> uncertainty.

If "uncertain" feels like "maybe wrong" then it usually activates our  
defense agencies.
>
> Many will watch this video  -- it's from TED and therefore expected to
> be high quality.
>
> But how many will make the effort to integrate its very simple,
> profound principle into your daily thinking?  It's very simple, but
> not necessarily easy.

It steps outside of default assumptions and without default  
assumptions the world would simply make no sense.
>
> How many of you will shake your head, "rationalize" that it's just a
> little too abstract, and go on arguing with passion and great
> certainty despite an obvious disqualification?

You can disqualify anything with infinite regress (and you probably  
have), but at some point even you have justified your beliefs as true.
That does not make them obvious to all others.

> Yes, I'm being quite tactless.  This is important, people!
>
> <http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/67>
>
> - Jef

I enjoyed learning about dealing with uncertainty more than learning  
about your manners.  So, thanks. -- Thomas
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