[ExI] who should white shoot?

[Chris Petersen]

On Thu, Aug 28, 2008 at 6:47 PM, Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com> wrote:

> I assume this question to be not only about the probability of
> accurate marksmanship, but also about each person's estimation of who
> the remaining shooters would choose to shoot.  Are we to assume that a
> successful hit necessarily means death?  If not, the scenario could
> become quite absurd when a fatally wounded-but-not-yet-dead gunslinger
> waits for his turn to shoot another nearly dead gunslinger.  I guess
> we also don't worry about either White or Brown killing Black on their
> first shot, then running out of bullets from missing either other
> repeatedly (assuming that 1/3 probability does not guarantee that
> White will definitely hit by his 3rd attempt in the same way a 1/2
> coin toss may show a 3+ occurance sequence of heads or tails)
>
> In the cases I considered (below) White has the best chance for
> survival if he shoots at Black first:  he is either lucky and gets rid
> of the deadliest opponent himself or misses Black but Brown kills
> Black.  Even if Brown were to miss, if Black shoots Brown first then
> White gets one more chance to kill Black.  If White kills Brown, Black
> kills white = game over.
>
> WR1, Rx, BW1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WR0, RW0, BW1, Wx, RB0, BR1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WR0, RW1, BR1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WR0, RB0, BW1, Wx, RB0, BR1 :: B wins
> WR0, RB0, BW1, Wx, RB1 :: R wins
> WR0, RB0, BR1, WB0, Rx, BW1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WR0, RB0, BR1, WB1, Rx, Bx :: W wins
> WB0, RW0, BW1, Wx, RB0, BR1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WB0, RW0, BR1, WB0, Rx, BW1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WB0, RW1, BR1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WB0, RB0, BR1, WB0, Rx, BW1, Wx, Rx :: B wins
> WB0, RB1, Bx, WR0, RW1, Bx, Wx :: R wins
> WB0, RB1, Bx, WR1, Rx, Bx :: W wins
> WB1, RW0, Bx, WR1, Rx, Bx :: W wins (flawless victoryyyyyy)
> WB1, RW1, Bx, Wx :: R wins
>

This is oldhat; I thought you were going to mix it up some. :)  Perhaps
Black is actually a hologram or White's bullet ricochets each round, or
they're all distracted by Mr. Pink running off with the loot?

Perhaps each suddenly suffered an epiphany as to the wasteful gracelessness
of their actions when seen over increasing scope of time or something
equally extropian?

-Chris
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