[ExI] Step at a time was economic parable

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Fri Oct 10 12:35:09 UTC 2008

On Thu, Oct 9, 2008 at 9:57 PM, hkhenson wrote:
> The current time to develop a major oil find is in that range, 7-10 years.
>  But the point is well taken.  The faster this can be done the more likely
> it is to attract capital.  We have been talking about a scheme similar to
> that Germany used on PV installations to jump start building power sats.
>  I.e., pass a law requiring utilities to buy a limited amount of power from
> space at a rather high price, then a much larger amount at a considerably
> lower price.

I would be very doubtful about time estimates for a huge project such as this.

Humans do not have a good record with large scale developments.

If you are talking about a whole nation project like the atom bomb
development or the Moon Landing where cost and resources are
unlimited, then maybe it could be done.
(I could see China doing something like this in a few years time).

Driving around the UK, it is not unusual to see notices like -
Repairs to unsafe bridge - Delays expected for 30 months.
Road widening - Delays expected until Autumn 2010.
Even permanent notices like - Caution Queues Likely.
(with no attempt to fix the cause of the queues).
etc. etc.

Don't get carried away by how quickly a web site and a nice PowerPoint
show can be developed.
Real world work takes much longer and is almost guaranteed to run late
and be wildly over budget.


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