[ExI] global warming again

[Max More]

Spike's hypothetical question about global cooling isn't so wild. In 
fact, it has been happening, depending on the time frame you look at. 
The globe actually did cool between 1940 and 1975, leading to 
widespread forecasts of problems from continued cooling. Warming then 
started again, but stopped around 1998. None of the models make sense of this.

I think the 1970s warnings of global cooling were hardly less 
reliable than current faith-based estimates of global warming. I say 
"faith-based" because even the IPCC's estimates (considered the 
authority) are not based on sound forecasting methodology. I said 
something about this at TransVision '07. On this point, see "Global 
Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts:
http://www.manyworlds.com/exploreCO.aspx?coid=CO770716334614

Maybe we will experience significant warming, maybe not. We should 
not be making (very expensive and economically destructive) policies 
based on bad forecasting practices. That's not to say we can't be 
taking less-expensive to reduce carbon emissions and reduce 
dependence on carbon-intensive energy sources. Bjorn Lomborg points 
out some more sensible ways of ameliorating problems from global 
warming (though he, too, accepts IPCC forecasts too readily):

Why Kyoto Won't Work
McKinsey, 23 February 2009
http://whatmatters.mckinseydigital.com/climate_change/why-kyoto-won-t-work


Max


Stefano Vaj wrote:
>On Sun, Mar 15, 2009 at 10:01 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> > It is so puzzling. What happens if we keep taking measuring and find
> > that the recent climate data indicates the globe is actually cooling?
>
>How would anybody believe that? I read the other day that GW 
>threaten several species with extinction in a few years: the polar 
>bears, the emperor penguins, and other, "amongst which the humankind" (!).


Max More, Ph.D.
Strategic Philosopher
www.maxmore.com
max at maxmore.com