[ExI] Power sats and technological emigration

[John K Clark]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Keith Henson" <hkhenson at rogers.com>
To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Thursday, January 01, 2009 3:52 PM
Subject: Re: [ExI] Power sats and technological emigration


> On Thu, Jan 1, 2009 at 12:33 PM, John David Galt
> <jdg at diogenes.sacramento.ca.us> wrote:
>>>>> It also only makes
>>>>> sense for a traffic model of a million tons per year or more.
>>
>>>> I see a disconnect.
>>
>>> Why?  The analysis is easy.  We have to replace a minimum of 500
>>> GW/year for the next 30 years.  That's a hundred 10 to 20 thousand ton
>>> power sats per year.  1-2 million tons a year.
>>
>> Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but why do we need to replace
>> 500 GW/year for 30 years?  Do you expect that many existing power
>> plants to break down, lose their fuel supplies, or be shut down for
>> political reasons, or do you expect that much new demand for power?
>> Such a forecast for any of these reasons, or even some of each,
>> sounds farfetched to me.
>>
>> [Go ahead and quote me to list if you like.]
> 
> http://www.afstrinity.com/worldoil.htm
> 
> The world uses about 15 TW of energy in all forms.  Between the
> decline of fossil fuels and the need for more energy for countries
> such as China and India, we need to replace or build new sources of
> about the same size as we now have.  If you replace 15 TW over 30
> years, that's 500 GW/year.  The installation might be somewhat larger
> if we want to put carbon back in the ground or use higher energy per
> capita.
> 
> It's a big market.
> 
> Keith
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