[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"
brentn at freeshell.org
Mon May 4 01:58:36 UTC 2009
On 3 May, 2009, at 21:49, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> and a bunch of more recent posts. Carpe Diem is very close to the top
> of my blog favorites tab, mainly because it consists to a large degree
> of charts and graphs.
> I carpe them posts every day.
I find his logic unconvincing. In this particular instance, as in the
1930s, economic contraction is being driven by deflation and lack of
real spending power (brought on, of course, by the stupidity of
bankers and too much debt and blah blah blah.) The recovery will
happen when there is sufficient demand to *grow* payrolls, not to
prevent them from contracting. These data are collected - by the Labor
Department as well as by private survey - so there's no excuse in not
using both unemployment and payroll to make the judgement as to
whether we're seeing a recovery.
Just because he argues from a chart doesn't mean his argument isn't
Brent Neal, Ph.D.
<brentn at freeshell.org>
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