[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

Brent Neal brentn at freeshell.org
Mon May 4 01:58:36 UTC 2009

On 3 May, 2009, at 21:49, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:

> and a bunch of more recent posts. Carpe Diem is very close to the top
> of my blog favorites tab, mainly because it consists to a large degree
> of charts and graphs.
> I carpe them posts every day.

I find his logic unconvincing. In this particular instance, as in the  
1930s, economic contraction is being driven by deflation and lack of  
real spending power (brought on, of course, by the stupidity of  
bankers and too much debt and blah blah blah.) The recovery will  
happen when there is sufficient demand to *grow* payrolls, not to  
prevent them from contracting. These data are collected - by the Labor  
Department as well as by private survey - so there's no excuse in not  
using both unemployment and payroll to make the judgement as to  
whether we're seeing a recovery.

Just because he argues from a chart doesn't mean his argument isn't  
bullshit. :)


Brent Neal, Ph.D.
<brentn at freeshell.org>

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