[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Sun, May 3, 2009 at 9:58 PM, Brent Neal <brentn at freeshell.org> wrote:
>
> I find his logic unconvincing. In this particular instance, as in the 1930s,
> economic contraction is being driven by deflation and lack of real spending
> power (brought on, of course, by the stupidity of bankers and too much debt
> and blah blah blah.) The recovery will happen when there is sufficient
> demand to *grow* payrolls, not to prevent them from contracting. These data
> are collected - by the Labor Department as well as by private survey - so
> there's no excuse in not using both unemployment and payroll to make the
> judgement as to whether we're seeing a recovery.

### He is pointing to the observations from the previous 6 recessions
- did you follow the link?
(http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/04/another_green_s.html)

Rafal