[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

Brent Neal brentn at freeshell.org
Mon May 4 17:21:31 UTC 2009

On 4 May, 2009, at 13:01, Brent Neal wrote:
> I'm sure I can dig them out. This isn't something that should be a  
> surprising revelation to anyone following the news. Check out, e.g.,  
> the PPI data over the past six months relative to other downward  
> cycles.

This represents about 30 seconds of Googling. Unless you think that  
the von Mises Institute is too left wing for you, of course. :)


This shows that in only 2 of the past 8 recessions were deflationary  
pressures felt. The PPI data for the past 6 months shows our current  
deflationary situation.

The question at hand is the one being talked about in the GI thread,  
though. It is entirely feasible that these are the growing pains  
towards an economy that where the wage-income link is weakened,  
something that the folks mired in industrial age economics can't wrap  
their heads around. As we begin to understand that ideas and memes   
will often be more valuable than stuff, there will inevitably be some  
rough spots as we transition from an economy based on atoms, arranged  
just so and moved from point A to point B , to an economy based on  
bits, arranged just so and moved from point A to point B. (Where they  
would then be "minted" into the right sort of atoms, perhaps. Or  
perhaps not.)

Brent Neal, Ph.D.
<brentn at freeshell.org>

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