[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

[scerir at tiscali.it]

Rafal:

He is pointing to the observations from the previous 6 recessions
- did you follow the link?
(http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/04/another_green_s.html )

#  The best paper about all that (to my knowledge) is the following
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aftermath.pdf 

The Aftermath of Financial Crises

Carmen M. Reinhart
University of Maryland. NBER and CEPR

Kenneth S. Rogoff
Harvard University and NBER

January 2009

ABSTRACT
This paper examines the depth and duration of the slump that 
invariably follows severe financial crises,
which tend to be protracted affairs. We find that asset market 
collapses are deep and prolonged. On a
peak-to-trough basis, real housing price declines average 35 
percent 
stretched out over six years, while
equity price collapses average 55 percent over a downturn of about 
three and a half years. Not
surprisingly, banking crises are associated with profound declines 
in 
output and employment. The
unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the 
down phase of the cycle, which lasts
on average over four years. Output falls an average of over 9 
percent, although the duration of the
downturn is considerably shorter than for unemployment. The real 
value of government debt tends to
explode, rising an average of 86 percent in the major post–World 
War 
II episodes. The main cause of debt
explosions is usually not the widely cited costs of bailing out and 
recapitalizing the banking system. The
collapse in tax revenues in the wake of deep and prolonged economic 
contractions is a critical factor in
explaining the large budget deficits and increases in debt that 
follow the crisis. Our estimates of the rise in
government debt are likely to be conservative, as these do not 
include increases in government
guarantees, which also expand briskly during these episodes.




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