[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

Brian Atkins brian at posthuman.com
Tue May 5 06:52:11 UTC 2009

Rafal, see pg. 18 of the following paper. The current market rally, "green 
shoots" etc. are likely just a small brief blip of moderation in the downward 
slide you can see in this model's predictive charts for 2009.

This model has an historical r^2 around .75 for explaining employment changes 12 
months into the future. And as you can see on the out of sample prediction on 
pg. 18 the actual data so far is tracking below what the model predicts. Even if 
this tightens up and improves a bit above the model's average estimate then the 
recession is not over.

The paper was written about in the WSJ and various blogs a few weeks back if you 
want to read more about it.

Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and 
Stock Markets


Brian Atkins
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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