[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"
brian at posthuman.com
Tue May 5 06:52:11 UTC 2009
Rafal, see pg. 18 of the following paper. The current market rally, "green
shoots" etc. are likely just a small brief blip of moderation in the downward
slide you can see in this model's predictive charts for 2009.
This model has an historical r^2 around .75 for explaining employment changes 12
months into the future. And as you can see on the out of sample prediction on
pg. 18 the actual data so far is tracking below what the model predicts. Even if
this tightens up and improves a bit above the model's average estimate then the
recession is not over.
The paper was written about in the WSJ and various blogs a few weeks back if you
want to read more about it.
Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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