[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Wed May 6 03:59:11 UTC 2009
On Tue, May 5, 2009 at 2:52 AM, Brian Atkins <brian at posthuman.com> wrote:
> Rafal, see pg. 18 of the following paper. The current market rally, "green
> shoots" etc. are likely just a small brief blip of moderation in the
> downward slide you can see in this model's predictive charts for 2009.
> This model has an historical r^2 around .75 for explaining employment
> changes 12 months into the future. And as you can see on the out of sample
> prediction on pg. 18 the actual data so far is tracking below what the model
> predicts. Even if this tightens up and improves a bit above the model's
> average estimate then the recession is not over.
### Very cool stuff. If true, we should expect a massive worsening of
the recession in about 4 months. This prediction is at odds with
other models (based on manufacturing data, service indices,
transportation indices) but it has to be taken quite seriously.
Need to wait and see what happens.
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