[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

Brian Atkins brian at posthuman.com
Wed May 6 08:21:39 UTC 2009

Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> ### Very cool stuff. If true, we should expect a massive worsening of
> the recession in about 4 months.  This prediction is at odds with
> other models (based on manufacturing data, service indices,
> transportation indices) but it has to be taken quite seriously.
> Need to wait and see what happens.

The "model" you initially referred to in order to call an end to the recession 
is simply saying "look: new unemployment claims have recently leveled off and 
improved slightly, this must be the ultimate peak in them for this recession."

Yet we really can't know for some time afterwards whether they really have 
ultimately peaked. If you look back at various recessions including the Great 
Depression you will see often there are one or more false peaks in this data, 
only later to be surpassed by even worse data months later.
Brian Atkins
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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