[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Wed, May 6, 2009 at 2:21 AM, Brian Atkins <brian at posthuman.com> wrote:

> Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
>>
>> ### Very cool stuff. If true, we should expect a massive worsening of
>> the recession in about 4 months.  This prediction is at odds with
>> other models (based on manufacturing data, service indices,
>> transportation indices) but it has to be taken quite seriously.
>>
>> Need to wait and see what happens.
>>
>>
> The "model" you initially referred to in order to call an end to the
> recession is simply saying "look: new unemployment claims have recently
> leveled off and improved slightly, this must be the ultimate peak in them
> for this recession."


### Predictions based on e.g. the Baltic Dry Goods index are more than that.
---------------------------------

>
>
> Yet we really can't know for some time afterwards whether they really have
> ultimately peaked. If you look back at various recessions including the
> Great Depression you will see often there are one or more false peaks in
> this data, only later to be surpassed by even worse data months later.


### Sure. This is why I said we need to wait and see what happens, and I
didn't offer you a bet. I am not confident that the recession will end
before the end of the year - but I didn't fully buy the credit-spread model
either.

Rafal
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20090506/7ebd5134/attachment.html>