[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Wed May 6 13:44:32 UTC 2009

On Wed, May 6, 2009 at 2:21 AM, Brian Atkins <brian at posthuman.com> wrote:

> Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>> ### Very cool stuff. If true, we should expect a massive worsening of
>> the recession in about 4 months.  This prediction is at odds with
>> other models (based on manufacturing data, service indices,
>> transportation indices) but it has to be taken quite seriously.
>> Need to wait and see what happens.
> The "model" you initially referred to in order to call an end to the
> recession is simply saying "look: new unemployment claims have recently
> leveled off and improved slightly, this must be the ultimate peak in them
> for this recession."

### Predictions based on e.g. the Baltic Dry Goods index are more than that.

> Yet we really can't know for some time afterwards whether they really have
> ultimately peaked. If you look back at various recessions including the
> Great Depression you will see often there are one or more false peaks in
> this data, only later to be surpassed by even worse data months later.

### Sure. This is why I said we need to wait and see what happens, and I
didn't offer you a bet. I am not confident that the recession will end
before the end of the year - but I didn't fully buy the credit-spread model

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