[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Wed May 6 15:45:03 UTC 2009

On Wed, May 6, 2009 at 8:57 AM, BillK pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

The reason for speculating about the future (apart from fun chat) is
for a guide to behavior.

If you think this is a quick recession which will end in a few weeks,
then you should be buying 'cheap' stocks in anticipation of a glorious

If you think this is a temporary upward blip in the downward
progression of a huge long-term depression, then you should be selling
stocks before the collapse.

If the collapse occurs, then it is better to be in cash. After prices
get near the bottom, you can allocate the cash to assets that you
expect to hold value.
(China appears to be buying all the gold it can get at present. But
that's no recommendation. Look at all the junk bonds they bought).

### You are right. Problem is, I have neither the cash to spend nor the
stock to sell nor the confidence to decide. By the time I am done paying off
the blood money to my hopefully soon to be ex wife, the recession will be
definitely over.

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