[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Wed May 6 14:57:34 UTC 2009

On 5/6/09, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> ### Is there a contradiction between the two paragraphs? Many indicators say
> the recession will end soon, others say it won't, I am not smart enough to
> tell which one is right. And as an aside the current crisis is not a
> depression. All fits together (unless you read too much confidence into the
> first paragraph).

The reason for speculating about the future (apart from fun chat) is
for a guide to behavior.

If you think this is a quick recession which will end in a few weeks,
then you should be buying 'cheap' stocks in anticipation of a glorious

If you think this is a temporary upward blip in the downward
progression of a huge long-term depression, then you should be selling
stocks before the collapse.

If the collapse occurs, then it is better to be in cash. After prices
get near the bottom, you can allocate the cash to assets that you
expect to hold value.
(China appears to be buying all the gold it can get at present. But
that's no recommendation. Look at all the junk bonds they bought).


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