[ExI] I know we moved on about psi

Bryan Bishop kanzure at gmail.com
Sun Jul 18 23:42:17 UTC 2010

2010/7/18 Frank McElligott <Frankmac at ripco.com>

> What she now knows is that the odds have improved(changed) from a sucker
> bet, which the lottery is,  to a one that she has a good chance of winning.,
> all the tickets bought were losers, and the remaining tickets not yet
> purchased contain the winner. More important every day that goes by her odds
> improve.More losinf tickets are bought and removed from the pool. Now if she
> has kept a record of average days before the winning ticket is bought,
> throws out the outliers, she will improve her chances even more.

I am wondering by how much the odds improve each day and whether or not the
risk is any greater than traditional investment. There's a payoff between
risk and rate of return on investment, of course, and playing initially with
the 1-in-175-million odds for a Mega Millions game is pretty crazy (although
maybe not crazy for the $1 it costs?). Still, if by investing $20M in
tickets you're able to get a 40% chance of tripling your money (and 60%
chance of just completely losing it of course), how does that work out? Hm.

- Bryan
1 512 203 0507
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