[ExI] The ultimate test of your transhumanist convictions...

[Ross Evans]

On Thu, Jun 24, 2010 at 11:30 PM, Damien Sullivan
<phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu>wrote:

> On Thu, Jun 24, 2010 at 10:44:54PM +0100, Ross Evans wrote:
>
> >    Productive deployment of capital now will always beat passive
> >    investment for the future. Pensions plans are the only way a person on
> >    average income can ever hope to accumulate a fund big enough to
> >    provide a meaningful retirement income. These plans basically involve
> >    playing the stock market, and as such their performance cannot be
>
> One person's 'playing' the stock market is another's productive
> deployment of capital -- the productiveness of which generally can't be
> guaranteed.
>


>    guaranteed. The reality is that people on average incomes cannot
>    afford to set aside a sufficient amount of capital for a retirement
>    plan that does not resort to casino capitalism to make returns. The

 But a plan, like a mutual fund, can spread the risk across a large
> population and longer time.  A guaranteed-benefit plan also can also
> take advantage of averages: a risk-averse individual planning for
> retirement via her own accounts needs to worry about living to be 95,
> which is inefficient if everyone does it, but a plan can target for the
> average life expectancy.
>

 But it's targeting a target that is moving upwards, and could well do so
dramatically in the next decade or so


>
> >    whole pension system is predicated upon actuarial assumptions that no
> >    longer hold true; it was never envisaged that people would live 20+
>
> I think you're confusing things.  I'm sure private plans price their
> premiums with the latest actuarial data.  Public plans are less flexible
> in their benefits, but conversely more flexible in their funding.
>

 And almost universally burdened with enormous funding blackholes.

>
> Also, while life past retirement has increased, so has productivity.
> Plans aren't all that bankrupt, despite propaganda.  As for Europe, some
> countries have retirement at 60; there's a flaw here, but it's not with
> the basic idea of pensions.
>




>
> -xx- Damien X-)
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