[ExI] psi yet again

John Clark jonkc at bellsouth.net
Tue Jun 29 07:40:52 UTC 2010


On Jun 29, 2010, at 2:51 AM, Damien Broderick wrote:

> 
> Do concentrate, John. I just agreed that lotto companies manage to be very profitable, despite the reality of psi.

YOU DID!!! I sleep less than most but I must have been sleeping you said that. Damien why art't you a Billionaire? You know how lotto companies make huge profits off a scam. a enormously profitable    but don't even hint how that scam acutely works. I wouldn't either if I were a Billionaire    


> I was hoping you'd explain to me how and why you thought it would be otherwise.
> 
> Here are some clues:
> 
> <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/gamble/odds/house.html>
> 
> "If $20 million is bet on a Lotto jackpot, the state will take between 40 and 50 percent out of that figure immediately. From the half left, smaller prizes are deducted. In most cases, you're left something like $5 to $8 million for winning a 14 million to 1 bet."
> 
> So up to half the money goes in taxes *immediately*. How could psi winners modify that?
> 
> Additionally, the companies take out their share *from the top*. How could psi winners modify that?
> 
> Eventually, you might suggest this: if everyone has amazing psi powers and always guesses the right winning numbers, then everyone will share the major prize, which will (by design) pay only some 40 or 50% or less of what each ticket cost. So people will stop betting, and the companies will have to close. Boo hoo.
> 
> Because we live in the real world, we actually can tell fairly easily that this story doesn't make any sense. Everyone *can't* predict the winning numbers all the time. Does this prove that psi does not exist, and in fact is impossible?
> 
> Do some calculations. Think for a moment about what would be involved if such an impossible skill as precognition actually existed. How would a thing like that modify your betting behavior?
> 
> Suppose you have to guess 6 numbers out of 44 or 49. Suppose psi enhances one guess in 1000, and either confirms your choice or causes you to switch to another number. How many extra division one winners would you expect to see in any draw? For full credit, please show your work.
> 
> Damien Broderick
> 
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