[ExI] Phil Jones acknowledging that climate science isn'tsettled

[Christopher Luebcke]

What would you consider a realistic scenario for sea level rise over the next, say, 50-100 years? About 17 percent of Bangladesh is at an elevation of one meter or less; a sea level rise of even have that this century (which is entirely realistic) would still displace millions and destroy a large area of food-producing land. 

And of course we shouldn't limit that consideration to Bangladesh, it provides the most striking example, but low-lying coastal regions around the world are subject to the same risks.

Is it perhaps that you believe that there are no "realistic scenarios related to manmade climate warming" at all, and therefore that which will never exist will pose no threat? Otherwise I really can't understand how you can discount it.

> Name the climatologists who claim that changes in Arctic sea ice can cause 
> disruptive rises in sea level

If I had made that claim, I would be happy to provide evidence. Again, please read carefully.

> I didn't make the claims you implied I did. I didn't claim that Bangladesh
> had already been losing land, and I didn't claim that global sea ice cover
> had been shrinking. Again, please read carefully.

### Yeah, that's the point of innuendo - not making any clear claims.


No, Rafal, I never implied (or used innuendo to suggest) that global sea ice was already shrinking, or that Bangladesh was already losing land area.

It's utterly pointless for you to ascribe to me a position which I have not claimed, argue against it, and insist that I secretly do hold it when I very explicitly explain that I do not. I half-expect you to next start explaining my role in the conspiracy.



________________________________
From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 12:53:27 AM
Subject: Re: [ExI] Phil Jones acknowledging that climate science isn'tsettled

2010/3/4 Christopher Luebcke <cluebcke at yahoo.com>:

You cannot possibly mean that
> no change in sea level, no matter how great, would put Bangladeshis at risk,
> can you? Would one meter per day do it? One meter per year? One meter per
> decade? Per 50 years? Per century? You may not believe that a sea level rise
> rapid enough to put them at risk is likely, but to simply state that they
> are not at risk is careless.

### We are talking about realistic scenarios related to manmade
climate warming, not about sea level changes caused by lasers fired at
the Antarctic by mischievous aliens, or other such situations. In
realistic scenarios Bangladesh is not at risk.

--------------------

> Regarding sea ice: It is not at all clear that world sea ice cover is more
> important than Arctic ice.

### Of course it is. World sea ice cover is more of a global
phenomenon, it is better correlated with global temperatures. Arctic
ice cover is more likely to be influenced by local phenomena, like
prevailing winds.

--------------------

>I don't give a damn about the average temperature
> of the ocean (or anything else).

### You should. If the ocean warms, it expands and could flood.

---------------------

I care about events that indicate an
> increased potential for disruptive (read: suffering-generating) climate
> change. I'm sure you're aware of the significants climatologists place on
> the more-rapid-than-expected Arctic melt, so I can only assume that you feel
> that you're right, they're wrong and there's no problem.

### Name the climatologists who claim that changes in Arctic sea ice
can cause disruptive rises in sea level. Just give me references to
peer-reviewed literature making this claim.

You seem care about the wrong events.

---------------------------

> I didn't make the claims you implied I did. I didn't claim that Bangladesh
> had already been losing land, and I didn't claim that global sea ice cover
> had been shrinking. Again, please read carefully.

### Yeah, that's the point of innuendo - not making any clear claims.

Rafal
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