[ExI] Did Hugo de Garis leave the field?

[Kelly Anderson]

On Mon, Apr 25, 2011 at 7:52 AM, Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com> wrote:
> Extrapolations assume that techical skills, interest, mobilisation,
> creativity, lateral thinking and breakthrough capabilities, invested
> resources, risk propension, paradigm shift pace, etc. remain the same
> or increase with time.

Also the political climate may have an effect on all of the above.

> In retrospect, I am inclined to believe on the contrary that what the
> nice Kurzweilian S-shaped curves really describe are a few
> exceptionally "magic" periods on a background of substantial
> stagnation, the most important of which is probably that from 1860 to
> 1960.

You lose me here. What curve are you talking about? Seems to me that
between the civil war and the dawn of the space race there was a lot
of progress in a lot of areas. In which area do you claim stagnation
in this period?

> Now, my personal assumption is that, be it space, AI, nuclear fusion
> or radical genetic engineering, what is actually lacking for the
> relevant promises to be kept is the appropriate cultural and societal
> background. Were this in place, I suspect that science and engineering
> would take care of themselves.

The point RK makes is that there is almost always an appropriate
cultural and societal background SOMEWHERE. If the US ceases to be the
main world power in 2017 like the IMF said the other day, then the
curves may continue in China. I am totally in agreement that you need
those things, but not everywhere all at once for progress to continue.

-Kelly