[ExI] Did Hugo de Garis leave the field?

[Anders Sandberg]

Stefano Vaj wrote:
> One wonders however if breakthroughs and paradigm shifts are not what
> ultimately counts, and what the metrics thereof might be...
>   
Exactly! If anybody has a good idea of how to count them in a principled 
way I would be most interested - our programme on technological change 
at FHI is intended to deal with these questions. (i.e. a really good 
idea can be foisted onto clever postdocs)

The method used by Charles Murray in "Human Excellence" might be a way 
of ranking discoveries, perhaps giving us some data.


> I submit that technological optimism is declining also because the
> perceived pace of change, both in our view of the world and in our
> control thereof, is dramatically lower than that we were experiencing
> a few decades ago.
>   

But people grow up expecting a certain rate of technological change. So 
are today's youngsters more or less technologically optimist? I think 
they are about equally optimistic. It is just that they care about 
different technologies.



-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute 
James Martin 21st Century School 
Philosophy Faculty 
Oxford University