[ExI] future of warfare again, was: RE: Forking

[Keith Henson]

On Fri, Dec 30, 2011 at 2:57 PM,  "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>>...] On Behalf Of Keith Henson
> ...
>>...I have no problem with a population larger even vastly larger than the
> current one, provided the economy stays ahead of the population growth.  If
> it fails to do so, falling income per capita is what turns on the
> psychological mechanisms leading to wars.  (Google "evolutionary psychology
> memes and the origin of war")...Keith
>
> Keith how does it work in evolutionary psychology as warfare evolves to the
> point where it involves fewer and fewer people, and far fewer actual
> injuries or death?

While the US lost relatively small numbers of people in the jihad war
to date, there were an awful lot of people killed.

> We are seeing what amounts to warfare between Iran and
> the US/Britain/Israel axis.  Drones are flying over and being apparently
> commandeered and captured, viruses are wrecking their nuclear separation
> facilities, plenty of computerized struggle is reportedly ongoing, but most
> of the population is unaware and unconcerned.  So different is this from
> every previous war in every previous century of human existence.  Are the
> old rules still applicable?

I see no reason human nature would have changed.

> What if military aerospace professionals and
> politicians worry about their own personal fortunes?  Can that subset go off
> and wage warfare without harming everyone else for instance?

How much damage was caused to the US economy by spending a trillion
dollars on the recent wars?  How many people will die because of the
economic collapse that engendered?

The big problem is that war expenses make the future bleaker for just
about everybody on both sides, leading in a many cases to additional
spread of xenophobic memes that lend support to more war.

And the other factor is that the memes leading up to wars divert
leaders from rational thinking.  Certainly you can make a strong case
that starting the war with Iraq was a widely supported irrational act.

One of the many things that I worry about is an irrational government
commissioning an AGI with the intent for it to help them win the
current war.

Such people are not going to be considering "friendly" as a desirable trait.

Keith