[ExI] Kurzweil On Watson

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Thu Feb 17 10:33:07 UTC 2011

On Thu, Feb 17, 2011 at 06:19:21AM -0400, Darren Greer wrote:
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/20110120/tc_zd/259558
> John will like this. Kurzweil says in his opening salve some of what he's
> been saying in the Watson threads.
> "In *The Age of Intelligent Machines*, which I wrote in the mid 1980s, I
> predicted that a computer would defeat the world chess
> champion<http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/20110120/tc_zd/259558#> by
> 1998. My estimate was based on the predictable exponential growth of
> computing power (an example of what I now call the "law of accelerating
> returns") and my estimate of what level of computing was needed to achieve a
> chess rating of just under 2800 (sufficient to defeat any human, although
> lately the best human chess scores have inched above 2800). I also predicted
> that when that happened we would either think better of computer
> intelligence, worse of human thinking, or worse of chess, and that if
> history was a guide, we would downgrade chess."



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