[ExI] Kurzweil On Watson

[Darren Greer]

>
http://singularityhub.com/2011/01/04/kurzweil-defends-his-predictions-again-was-he-86-correct/

http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2010/01/kurzweils-2009-predic<http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2010/01/kurzweils-2009-predictions/>
tions<

Well, his success rate is better than Nostradamus. But then again, he's not
relying on a fickle daemon for results. I think what he has to say about
Watson and the Turing Test is valid, and rather simply put, regardless of
the predictions. Dealing with the complexity of language is a better
indicator of intelligence and closer to passing the test than dealing with
the purely mathematical game tree complexity of chess.

d.

On Thu, Feb 17, 2011 at 6:33 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Thu, Feb 17, 2011 at 06:19:21AM -0400, Darren Greer wrote:
> > http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/20110120/tc_zd/259558
> >
> > John will like this. Kurzweil says in his opening salve some of what he's
> > been saying in the Watson threads.
> >
> > "In *The Age of Intelligent Machines*, which I wrote in the mid 1980s, I
> > predicted that a computer would defeat the world chess
> > champion<http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/20110120/tc_zd/259558#> by
> > 1998. My estimate was based on the predictable exponential growth of
> > computing power (an example of what I now call the "law of accelerating
> > returns") and my estimate of what level of computing was needed to
> achieve a
> > chess rating of just under 2800 (sufficient to defeat any human, although
> > lately the best human chess scores have inched above 2800). I also
> predicted
> > that when that happened we would either think better of computer
> > intelligence, worse of human thinking, or worse of chess, and that if
> > history was a guide, we would downgrade chess."
>
>
> http://singularityhub.com/2011/01/04/kurzweil-defends-his-predictions-again-was-he-86-correct/
>
>
> http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2010/01/kurzweils-2009-predictions/
>
> --
> Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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