[ExI] Kurzweil On Watson

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, Feb 17, 2011 at 06:47:53AM -0400, Darren Greer wrote:

> Well, his success rate is better than Nostradamus. But then again, he's not

Trying to play Nostradamus in futurism is a fool's game. You can
only lose.

> relying on a fickle daemon for results. I think what he has to say about
> Watson and the Turing Test is valid, and rather simply put, regardless of

You see novelty in what Kurzweil says, yes?

> the predictions. Dealing with the complexity of language is a better
> indicator of intelligence and closer to passing the test than dealing with

The best Turing test is unemployment. When everybody is unemployed
you know full human equivalence has been reached. Just define
something like LD50 (half unemploment reached) for each individual 
profession as an arbitrary yardstick for approximate equivalence. 
Integrating over invididual professions
will be more difficult, since flooding will put some underwater
faster than others. 

> the purely mathematical game tree complexity of chess.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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