[ExI] Meat v. Machine

[Eugen Leitl]

On Fri, Dec 31, 2010 at 04:19:43PM -0800, Samantha Atkins wrote:

> Until human level AGI (about 3 decades out seems to be current 
> consensus), humans are needed.  Given that we need space based 

Do you see the difference between having a system execute a plan
with a turnaround time of 2.5 seconds or one with half an hour?

Go buy a Kinect, put in a 2.5 second FIFO delay, and try building
something in SL with it. Or just add a 2.5 s FIFO in the driver
for mouse/6DOF controller, whatever use you.

Now push the FIFO to 10 seconds, 30 seconds, 1 min, 5 min, 10 min, 
30 min. See the difference?

Now think about what a simple collision avoidance would
do. Just push semi-blindly, see the system settle into
a nondesaster state. Now think *reflexes*. The dumb
spinal cord is on the Moon, 2.5 sec turnaround time away,
your brain is here.

Everyone seems to think it's realtime fine-motorics,
or bust. Not so. Yes, there's a difference between 30 ms
and 2500 ms. But there's a much larger difference between
2500 ms and 1800000 ms. That's one hell of a handicap,
even without microgravity.

> resources before three decades from now we must build out human 
> support local space/lunar infrastructure.    

Humans are irrelevant. At least when it comes to space.
You want to go places, you have to stop wearing the
stupid man suit.
 
> You need a lot of high mass initial equipment to lift from 

I disagree that you need to launch large (100 ton)
packages. I think you can work well with >100 kg
packages. With plasma thrusters you can probably
deliver one half to one third of LEO payload to 
Moon surface semi-softly. So a ton to LEO is a 
useful threshold.

> the gravity well in any any case to have a basis to built 
> from this side of mature nano-assembler seeds which are 
> at least 5 - 6 decades out.     It is a good question what 
> the minimal amount of lift needed is given the current tech 

We're well in excess of what we need. It would be nice
if prices would come down a bit, but that is not actually
relevant.

More importantly, you can start working now, as none of the
parts rely on particular features of transport system you're
going to use 15-20 years from now.

> state of the art over time.  The amount of mass you need 
> to lift from earth in inversely proportional to the 
> sophistication of the technology.     But it is today quite substantial.   

I disagree it is substantial. And the only way to know is
to start working *now*, so that in 15-20 years you have all 
the numbers.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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