[ExI] eroei forward for kennedy, p.e.

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

Robert G. Kennedy III wrote:

> Professor Kreith wrote that the minimum acceptable figure of merit for
> a technical civilization was about 3. You can show why this is so with
> feedback diagrams. (You can't spend every erg society has looking for
> more energy, you have to eat, go to the doctor, raise kids, etc.) So
> Mr BillK is spot on.

### Wait, you compare gross revenues at today's oil prices to outlays
on exploration - why should this comparison matter?

What matters is the total energy supply and its cost as a fraction of
gross national (or world) economic product (the second number is much
more important than the first). As long as the total supply is
sufficient to keep the cost at a small-enough fraction of gross
national product, energy supply is not a significant factor limiting
our ability to act (raise kids, fly to the stars, etc.). Since now
energy production is still about 10% of world economic product (give
or take http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2010/02/16/a-primer-on-energy-and-the-economy-energys-large-share-of-the-economy-requires-caution-in-determining-policies-that-affect-it/),
and no reputable estimates predict any significant increases in this
fraction, clearly we are not suffering from an energy crisis, and are
not approaching one. So why should we care if EROI in the oil industry
is "only" 3?

After all, the financial return on most activities that constitute our
economy is on the order of 1 - 10% (not the much larger return implied
by your calculation for oil production), and yet we don't see this as
a problem. Why should energy production be singled out to be treated
differently than other branches of the economy?

Rafal