[ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Sat Feb 25 10:15:58 UTC 2012


On Fri, Feb 24, 2012 at 02:30:50PM -0800, The Avantguardian wrote:

> I just had a sobering thought while in the shower. Since most costs of doing business or even basic survival are tied to oil prices, then the cost of researching and developing alternative energies is also proportional to the price of oil. Therefore it would stand to reason that oil prices directly define civilization's window of opportunity to survive the Malthusian Energy Crisis. I think that there is an oil price point that can be thought of as an indicator that even industrialized wealthy countries can no longer afford to develop any alternative energy sources. Then it becomes an ugly last-man-standing downward spiral to atavism.

Congratulations, you've just rediscovered the energy trap
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8526
and the energy cliff http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46579
which very few people do on their own. 

And therein lies the core of our problems: most people do
not realize that time is running out, and increasingly
heroic measures are required to climb out of the trap
the longer you wait while our muscle withers. Long-term
prognosis of such behaviour is unfavorable.

Collectively, we seem to have about the same intelligence
as overnight culture which has been just peak maximum
turbidity. This used to make me sad, but now I just find
it grimly amusing. 
  
> Unfortunately, I don't know what that price point is, nor am I certain how to calculate it. I do think each alternative energy source brought online should raise the Doomsday Oil Price significantly. Any suggestions?


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