[ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

[Mirco Romanato]

Il 29/02/2012 19:26, Samantha Atkins ha scritto:
> Oil is not going to 1000x current value anytime soon.

Agree

> It is likely to go past $200/bbl if Iran is attacked though.

This depend.
How much Iran is really able to interdict Hormuz? How long?
What would the US administration do?

> Note that the US produces about half of all the oil it uses. But no,
>  we can't bring alternatives online that quickly.

Quickly is an undefined term.
Quickly in months probably not. Quickly in few years? Sure.

> It takes years, about 10, just to bring a new refinery online.

One wonder how the US was able to win the WW2 if this was true.
It take years if there is not the will to go fast.
Just trash the legislation preventing or slowing the building and
on-lining of refinery, nuclear reactors, chemical factories and so on.

In the 1950s they built nuclear reactors for power production in three
years. Anything longer, today, is only due to political reason.

The only real peak oil I'm concerned is political peak oil.



> How long you think it would take to bring enough plants online to
> provide alternate IC fuels including the retooling of pipelines,
> tanker trucks, and delivery systems that might be needed for some of
> those fuels?

Not so much, if the market is allowed to work freely. A few years would
be enough. If it is prevented to do its job? It will never deliver
anything useful.


> It would take even longer to phase out IC engines
> complete in favor of electrics, if we find the energy and get the
> grid in shape to supply the load and handle all those hopefully fast
> charging units.

You don't need to phase out all IC cars. You need to phase out just the
most used cars.
Some of these cars are used so heavily they are scrapped after a year or
two at most. These are the cars you (and the people using them for work)
want phase out first because they give you the most saving.
Then you move down the food chain, replacing the cars and vehicles
travelling longer distances in the shorter time first and the other after.

The electric power will be there, just build nuclear reactors in three
years instead of thirteen or twenty-three.

Mirco