[ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

[The Avantguardian]

----- Original Message -----
> From: Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com>
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Saturday, February 25, 2012 1:17 PM
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)
> 
> On Sat, Feb 25, 2012 at 12:26 PM, The Avantguardian
> <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>> The price of oil need not skyrocket.
> 
> I used that as a dramatic example.  If even this extreme case
> can be beaten, then slower versions can too.
> 
>>  The point is how fast can the oil companies come up with an affordable 
> synfuel that can work in the cars that are on the road RIGHT NOW? If their 
> answer is greater than a week, then we are fucked.
> 
> If the price of oil jumped 1000-fold in a day, the synfuels that
> exist today would suddenly be "affordable" at their current prices.
> The National Petroleum Reserve would almost certainly be
> dumped on the market entirely; that and similar measures would
> buy time to scale up synfuel production.
> 
>> You say the skyrocketing oil prices wouldn't cause a holocaust? Are you 
> factoring in civil unrest?
> 
> Massive riots alone do not a holocaust make.  Yes, there would
> be bloodshed - but far more than 10% of the populace would
> survive.  It might well be over 50%.
> 
> A holocaust, on the other hand, where there simply are no
> resources to survive on without going back to pre-industrial
> methods, no matter what anyone does?  That's a fall back to
> pre-industrial population: less than 10% of current total.

You don't consider the deaths of 1/3 of humanity a holocaust? Why? Do you mistakenly think that the 1/3 will be brown people half a world away? 

>> If the oil companys' ace-in-the-hole isn't already online or 
> deployable in a week or less, then it is time to get a shotgun.
> 
> If that is your answer, go ahead and shoot them - and starve.

I did not advocate shooting anyone, let alone oil companies. How do you shoot a company anyway? I am saying that if you don't get a shotgun or similar you might someday find yourself at the mercy of someone who does have one. Sorry I am not pussy pacifist.

> 
> We transhumanists, on the other hand, prefer instead to fix
> the problem.  Get those aces online or rapidly deployable.
> Shooting people who - whatever their motivations - can be
> coopted into helping make this happen, rarely helps and
> often hurts this objective.
> 
> You appear to be engaged in disasterbation: believing that
> the world is so terrible and doomed and there's nothing
> you can do about it.  That can be a powerful emotional
> release, because it absolves you of all responsibility and
> culpability if bad things happen.

Huh? Nah consider it to be niche-marketing my new product.

> Unfortunately, it is also fallacious.  While it is true that no
> one of us can solve the entire energy crisis on our own, it
> is also the case that, if enough of us work to solve it, it
> will get solved.  What you can do, and should do, is help
> make the better future happen.  On the other hand, getting
> mad and preaching about inevitable doomsday just makes
> people give up - starting with yourself.
> Yes, that *does* mean you're partially responsible if the
> worst happens, if you've spent most of your energy on
> this convincing yourself otherwise.

 
How have I given up? I am holding a sale. For a limited time only, I will sell you two of these babies, for mere $1.0 billion USD rated at 1 MW each. That's enough to power a major hospital or two suburban neighborhoods so that you personally never get caught with your pants down. So don't try to paint ME as part of the problem, Adrian.

http://www.google.com/patents/US20090294576

 
Stuart LaForge
 
"The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides.