[ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

[Eugen Leitl]

On Mon, Feb 27, 2012 at 02:00:03PM -0800, The Avantguardian wrote:

> I think what society needs is a balanced "energy diet". All this hydrocarbon burning is like a fat-only diet. Literally like spoonfuls of lard or butter. Yes, it is cheap but SSSOOOOO DISGUSTING.  And all this CO2? That is the diarrhea of your high-fat-diet. Don't believe CO2 is diarrhea? Try seeing how long you hold out with a plastic bag sealed over your head. (WARNING: Do *not* actually try.) Yet solar-power, while more expensive than lard er oil, is like the broccoli of energy. It has NO emissions and while it has less calories, those calories can potentially last forever with proper maintenance.

I don't get it why people still think solar is expensive: it is certainly less expensive
than new nuclear, and in dynamic large scale solar markets it is reliably the cheapest
electricity by far during peak demand. Apparently almost nobody looked when nuclear
France had to buy peak power from their nonnuclear neighbor this winter, which made a mint as
the prices shot through the ceiling.

In fact FiTs are being cut far sooner and far more severely than planned because
they're eating into power supplier's profits. Their whole business model is at stake.

Solar PV will be cheaper than dirty coal in less than 10 years, at which point the
whole debate will look very silly in the retrospect.
 
The actual problem is synfuels and synthons (e.g. reduction equivalents for ore)
which is not on people's radars for some unfathomable reason (okay, I'm being
uncharacteristically charitable here).
 
> So people, you can continue guzzling that oil, which is like ordering off nature's value menu. Or you can pay the extra bucks to get a balanced energy diet so that you can build strong bones and conquer the stars. The choice is yours, I am just along for the ride.
>  
> Stuart LaForge