[ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

[Eugen Leitl]

On Wed, Feb 29, 2012 at 12:39:37AM -0700, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> > Maybe, the fact they ask and need subsides to sell PV solar

Subsidies are being cut as we speak, because the utilities are
pooping their pants in sheer terror. This will bring them nothing,
because PV is headed for grid parity in many locations by 2015
http://www.energymatters.com.au/index.php?main_page=news_article&article_id=3072

Presumably porkbarrel offshore wind subsidies and tax-backed/guaranteed buy big
projects like Desertec will be their action of last resort. We'll see.

> > installations is a give away of the fact solar is costly and not really
> > competitive in a free open market.
> 
> Solar is VERY expensive on a per house retrofit basis. And that is how

FWIW, some 40% of new German installations by power are small and 
invidually owned. It's about over half if you consider the farmers.

> it is normally approached in the USA. Medium sized 200-500 household
> installations is an entirely different animal, and that's going to be
> competitive in the next decade.

Germany is at 20% renewable now, but it's only electricity. 
Too little too late. If US thinks they can wait, well, consider
the outcome if that assumption is wrong.
 
> >> it is certainly less expensive than new nuclear,
> >
> > If you make the solar jump in the loops as you do with new nuclear
> > plants it would be much more expensive than new nuclear.

Er. New nuclear is expensive because of safety requirements.
Obviously PV panels don't have corium as main failure mode and
millions of pipe welds to control.
 
> Nuclear won't work because of the tree huggers. It's DOA, despite
> being highly reasonable technology.

The only reasonable technology is a sustainable one. To qualify
as borderline sustainable nuclear needs breeders, and breeders (whatever
fuel cycle) are the most expensive and unsafe power sources known
to man, and they breed pitifully to boot. If you don't have breeders, and
ramp up you'll get peak uranium before 2040. That means we don't
have to bother, as these will probably never EROEI nor ROI.
 
> > Do any foundry use solar for producing aluminium or steel or whatever?

Of course.

> > At what costs?
> 
> A lot of aluminum is smelted near large hydroelectric dams. The TVA

Geothermal in Iceland produces very cheap and plentiful power, but
Huldufólk (and Sigur Ros) hate aluminium plants.

> dams were originally built to this purpose. If hydroelectric isn't
> solar, what is... ;-)
> 
> >> Solar PV will be cheaper than dirty coal in less than 10 years, at
> >> which point the whole debate will look very silly in the retrospect.
> >
> > In the next ten years is not now.
> 
> We don't have a huge problem right now. If we did, we would have $15 a
> gallon gasoline.

We have 1.70 EUR/l at the moment, FWIW.
 
> > If wishes were horses we would be endangered by their manure.
> > When, in ten years, PV will produce power at rates lower or comparable
> > with dirty coal or dirty nuclear we will see. In the interim, it is not
> > true.
> >
> > If I'm in high water, being able to swim the next week will not prevent
> > me from drowning now.
> 
> Who is drowning now? I bought gasoline today. It was reasonably
> priced. It's all hyped up for political reasons. Do we need a national

Increasing inability to meet demand at declining EROEI are hardly
political reasons. Given lack of electrified rail in many locations
in the world one is looking forward to LA riot level of disruption when
there's not just price ballistically penetrating the ceiling, but also
actual rationing.

> energy policy? You bet. Let's stop subsidizing the oil industry. Other
> than that, let's just let the market work.a

Markets don't work in areas like long-term planning (30-40 years) or 
public infrastructure. I don't know why people hate on FiTs, we wouldn't
have these cheap PV panels if Germany hadn't kickstart the market 
single-handedly. Now the work's done.