[ExI] Pluto probe nearing target

spike spike66 at att.net
Mon Jan 23 16:15:23 UTC 2012



From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dan
Subject: [ExI] Pluto probe nearing target




>.Recall that many years ago someone here said this probe was a waste as by
the time it reached Pluto better, faster probes would be available.



Dan notice those kinds of predictions were not being made by people in the
space biz.  We know how long things take to change in that industry.  One
often feels the need to dodge glaciers as they rush past.



>. or maybe that body would even be disassembled for other uses.... 


We hafta get there before we can disassemble it.



>.Well, it's got three more years to get there, but the Singularity hasn't
happened yet.


A post singularity world would still have the same physical limitations we
have in doing interplanetary travel.



>.Anyone want to take any bets that the probe will get there long before any
other hyperoptimistic outcomes? :)  Regards,  Dan


Regarding hyper-optimistic outcomes, I would recommend Michael Lewis' book
The Big Short.  If you don't want to take the time to read some dull
economics book, there are online commentaries which give the basic idea in a
tenth the time.  There are ideas in there with which we can create a model
that suggests why there is a hyper-optimistic segment in investment.  We can
extend those notions to help us understand why something analogous to that
exists in technology.  An understanding of that model helps each of us
figure out where we are on that map.


The situation Lewis describes explains why it is that I am currently writing
the best proposals of my career and none of them are landing research
dollars, not one win in the past three years.


Have we Lewis readers present?



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