[ExI] now + 10k

[spike]

>... On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
Subject: Re: [ExI] now + 10k

On Sun, Jun 24, 2012 at 7:59 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>>... An offlist discussion has me thinking about how attitudes are shaped 
> by our vision of what this world will look like 10k years from now...
spike


>...Would you get much agreement from even this list on now+0.1k ?  Many of
the optimists have a singularity scheduled before then.  The realists would
likely remind us accelerating change puts us at increasing disadvantage to
make useful prediction...  Given how far off 1960 was at predicting 2010,
how likely are we to predict another
50 years much less 100, 1000, or 10k?... Mike
_______________________________________________


Good point Mike, and this is why I specified 10k years.  We are in a period
of rapid change due to technology, but most everyone will agree that by 10k
years from now, whatever is going to happen will have happened: all out
nuclear war back into the stone age, or gray goo, or biowar, or uploading
and MBrain, or something like a Star Trek future in which mankind settles
into some kind of long term sustainable equilibrium with our natural
resources, or something.  The 10k future is in some ways easier to predict
than the 100 year future.

spike