[ExI] now + 10k

[Stefano Vaj]

On 25 June 2012 06:32, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Good point Mike, and this is why I specified 10k years.  We are in a period
> of rapid change due to technology, but most everyone will agree that by 10k
> years from now, whatever is going to happen will have happened: all out
> nuclear war back into the stone age, or gray goo, or biowar, or uploading
> and MBrain, or something like a Star Trek future in which mankind settles
> into some kind of long term sustainable equilibrium with our natural
> resources, or something.  The 10k future is in some ways easier to predict
> than the 100 year future.
>

I suspect that technically a period of 10 kiloyears is in any event beyond
a singularity, meaning a point where our predictive tools collapse owing to
the iterative effects of changes having taken place in the meantime.

That is, unless one believes that a short-term Brave New Worldish evolution
can achieve enough stability to prevent any futher change for millennia, or
that extinction is incumbent.


-- 
Stefano Vaj
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