[ExI] Wash post comment

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Tue May 15 08:45:32 UTC 2012

On Mon, May 14, 2012 at 01:15:32PM -0700, Jeff Davis wrote:
> With respect, every few years someone says,  all Henny Penny-like,
> "We're running out of energy.  We're doomed, we're doomed."  And then
> something happens -- vast new oil fields off the coast of Brazil,
> Alaskan north coast, Siberian Arctic, South China Sea, etc etc.  Or
> new tech makes previously unavailable resources available: deep water
> drilling, tar sands refining, and lately horizontal drilling and
> "fracking" in shale gas formations.

You're living in a different reality. Look at the numbers instead
of fact-empty rah-rah, go tigers.
> Athabasca and Orinoco tar sands:  each containing substantially more
> energy reserves than Saudi Arabia.  Shale gas across the planet:
> ditto, in spades, and cleaner and cheaper than tar sands..  No peak
> oil, no energy crisis. All the fuss is just old fashioned media hype.
> Same old same old.  Rivet those eyeballs, and then... Strangle the
> chicken to scare the monkey(s).  Always keep them scared and working
> hard to get the money to buy safety and happiness.
> Energy is priced in dollars.  Is the price of energy going up, or is

Price is not a good predictor of recoverable total energy.
Markets can't predict shit, captain.

> the value of the dollar going down(or perhaps a little of both)?
> The real answer lies not in today's expense for whatever, but in the
> inevitable technologically-driven, increase in productivity driven by
> advanced automation.  That makes everything cheaper, including, and in

Advanced automation will actually make EROEI worse.

> particular, access to space.  Then we -- which is to say humanity --
> can get the hell out of this gravity well -- Planet of the One percent
> and their minion Morons -- and take up and enjoy real freedom and
> independence in the vast spaces between worlds.

Aerospace is not considered essential. All nonessential activities
are reduced during crisis.
> Best, Jeff Davis
>        "Everything's hard till you know how to do it."
>                                   Ray Charles
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