[ExI] Wash post comment

[Jeff Davis]

On Tue, May 15, 2012 at 1:45 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Mon, May 14, 2012 at 01:15:32PM -0700, Jeff Davis wrote:
>> With respect, every few years someone says,  all Henny Penny-like,
>> "We're running out of energy.  We're doomed, we're doomed."

<snip>

> You're living in a different reality. Look at the numbers instead
> of fact-empty rah-rah, go tigers.

Good to see your doing well.  Spring has sprung and you're as spunky as ever.

I go to the gas station.  There I find my reality,... and my numbers.
Plenty of gas, no lines.  Numbers go up -- war and rumors of war, not
shortages; crude inventories are bulging -- folks grumble, then they
pay and go on there way.  Life goes on.

With respect, not all numbers are reality-based, like those found at
the gas pump.

>> Athabasca and Orinoco tar sands:  each containing substantially more
>> energy reserves than Saudi Arabia.  Shale gas across the planet:
>> ditto, in spades, and cleaner and cheaper than tar sands..  No peak
>> oil, no energy crisis. All the fuss is just old fashioned media hype.
>> Same old same old.  Rivet those eyeballs, and then... Strangle the
>> chicken to scare the monkey(s).  Always keep them scared and working
>> hard to get the money to buy safety and happiness.
>>
>> Energy is priced in dollars.  Is the price of energy going up, or is
>
> Price is not a good predictor of recoverable total energy.

Before one can reliably predict "recoverable total energy." beyond
short term, one has to have the relevant facts.  Inventories of
resources as yet undiscovered are unavailable, as are
yet-to-be-developed technologies and the unseen synergies arising from
that mix of future tech.

> Markets can't predict shit, captain.

People predict -- with mixed success -- markets don't have to predict,
they just have to respond, which they do, quite nicely, thank you.
High gas prices predict,... electric cars, mein furor. ;-)

>> the value of the dollar going down(or perhaps a little of both)?
>>
>> The real answer lies not in today's expense for whatever, but in the
>> inevitable technologically-driven, increase in productivity driven by
>> advanced automation.  That makes everything cheaper, including, and in
>
> Advanced automation will actually make EROEI worse.

You sir, are an imposter.  Gene would never say such a thing.
Everyone knows automation makes everything cheaper.

Who ARE you, and what have you done with the real Gene Leitl?  He's a
friend of mine, so you better not hurt him (too much).  I'm calling
the policei right now!!!

By the way, I understand "ROI". And I suspect that "EROEI" means
Energy Return on Energy Invested.  But please confirm.

>> particular, access to space.  Then we -- which is to say humanity --
>> can get the hell out of this gravity well -- Planet of the One percent
>> and their minion Morons -- and take up and enjoy real freedom and
>> independence in the vast spaces between worlds.
>
> Aerospace is not considered essential.

Tell that to Diamandis et al, (and me, too).  There is more to life
than the "essentials".  Regarding essentials, sorry to hear that you
are strapped,  am sending you some chocolate bars and some Spam.
Plenty of essentials over here.  When did you move to Eastern Somalia?

>All nonessential activities
> are reduced during crisis.

What crisis?  The mainstream news vs cable vs internet
competition-over-eyeballs manufactured crisis?  That one?  Puleeeeese!

YMMV.

Best, Jeff Davis

        "Everything's hard till you know how to do it."
                                   Ray Charles