[ExI] puzzle for intrade fans
spike
spike66 at att.net
Thu Oct 25 15:14:42 UTC 2012
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2012 7:11 AM
To: 'Gordon'; 'ExI chat list'
Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans
>… On Behalf Of Gordon
Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans
>>…Hi Spike. Is this a trend you see over many days or weeks? I wouldn't read too much into one day's worth of data…Gordon
>…Hi G, … His upticks are sudden, but his bull runs are leisurely, the mirror image of his mainstream opponent. I think someone is manipulating this market somehow, and making buttloads of money. I think this is just ethically bankrupt and morally unacceptable, that this crafty devil isn’t me, but rather someone else making all that money…spike
>Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below:
And here’s the roughly corresponding Obama graph:
OK cool, I may have stumbled on some evidence to figure out what is going on here. Note that series of trades right about 135 AM in both the Romneys and the Obamas. There was a ton of trades every few seconds at 20 shares. The sum of the trades was 99.9 cents. This would make sense: the probability that both Romney and Obama lose is actually I think higher than 1 in a 1000, but perhaps it is wishful thinking on my part. 1 in a 1000 is probably about what most people would estimate as reasonable.
My theory is that this 2AM series of trades, about 600 shares, or 6000 dollars, anticipated the bull stampede you see that happened just after 810AM, after the proles got up and had a couple cups of hot joe. Then the price of Obamas dropped a little over a cent, so that 6000 dollar investment made a cool 80 bucks for the investor.
Watch for the same thing to happen tonight.
spike
Oct 25, 2012 12:51 AM EDT
59.6
1
Oct 25, 2012 12:51 AM EDT
40.5
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:01 AM EDT
59
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:02 AM EDT
41
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT
59.4
3
Oct 25, 2012 1:02 AM EDT
41
3
Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT
59.5
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:02 AM EDT
41.1
2
Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT
59.6
146
Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT
40.6
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT
59
153
Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT
41
153
Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT
59
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT
41
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
59.5
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
40.6
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
59.5
47
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
40.6
2
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
59.5
3
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
40.5
45
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
59.5
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT
40.6
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT
59.5
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:27 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT
59.5
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:34 AM EDT
40.3
22
Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT
59.5
45
Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:34 AM EDT
59.6
146
Oct 25, 2012 1:36 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT
59.5
5
Oct 25, 2012 1:37 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT
59.5
84
Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:36 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:37 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:44 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:45 AM EDT
40.4
5
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
59.7
29
Oct 25, 2012 1:45 AM EDT
40.4
17
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
59.7
71
Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:44 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
40.4
10
Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT
40.4
1158
Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT
59.5
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT
40.4
18
Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT
59.5
18
Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT
40.4
2
Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT
59.5
2
Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT
40.4
18
Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT
59.5
18
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
40.4
17
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
59.5
17
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
59.5
16
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
40.4
16
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
59.5
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
40.4
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT
59.5
16
Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT
40.4
1
Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT
59.5
16
Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT
40.4
16
Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT
59.5
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT
40.4
16
Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT
59.5
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT
40.4
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT
59.5
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT
40.4
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:53 AM EDT
59.5
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT
40.4
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
59.5
14
Oct 25, 2012 1:53 AM EDT
40.4
15
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
59.5
14
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
40.4
14
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
59.5
14
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
40.4
14
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
59.5
13
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
40.4
14
Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT
59.5
13
Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT
40.4
13
Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT
59.5
13
Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT
40.4
20
Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT
59.5
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT
40.4
13
Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT
59.5
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT
40.4
13
Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT
59.5
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT
40.4
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT
59.5
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT
40.4
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT
59.5
11
Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT
40.4
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT
59.5
11
Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT
40.4
12
Oct 25, 2012 1:58 AM EDT
59.5
11
Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT
40.4
11
Oct 25, 2012 1:58 AM EDT
59.6
5
Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT
40.4
11
Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT
59.5
11
Oct 25, 2012 1:58 AM EDT
40.4
11
Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT
59.5
10
Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT
40.4
11
Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT
59.5
10
Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT
40.4
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT
59.5
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT
40.4
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT
59.5
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT
40.4
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT
59.5
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT
40.4
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT
59.5
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT
40.4
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT
59.5
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT
59.5
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT
59.5
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT
59.5
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
59.5
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
59.5
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
59.5
8
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
59.5
8
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
40.4
9
Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT
59.5
7
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
40.4
8
Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT
59.5
14
Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT
40.4
8
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
59.5
3
Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT
40.4
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
59.5
60
Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT
40.4
14
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
59.6
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
40.4
200
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
59.6
10
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
40.4
1
Oct 25, 2012 2:08 AM EDT
59.6
20
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
40.4
60
Oct 25, 2012 2:13 AM EDT
59.6
64
Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT
40.4
60
Oct 25, 2012 2:21 AM EDT
59.3
1
Oct 25, 2012 2:13 AM EDT
40.3
3
Oct 25, 2012 2:31 AM EDT
59.4
1
Oct 25, 2012 2:13 AM EDT
40.3
4
Oct 25, 2012 2:31 AM EDT
59.3
2
Oct 25, 2012 2:13 AM EDT
40.2
8
Oct 25, 2012 2:31 AM EDT
59
7
Oct 25, 2012 2:14 AM EDT
40.4
14
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20121025/c69b43f1/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 18140 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20121025/c69b43f1/attachment.obj>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 19216 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20121025/c69b43f1/attachment-0001.obj>
More information about the extropy-chat
mailing list