[ExI] puzzle for intrade fans

[spike]

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
…

 

>…Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below:

 

 



 

>…His upticks are sudden, but his bull runs are leisurely, the mirror image of his mainstream opponent.  I think someone is manipulating this market somehow, and making buttloads of money.  I think this is just ethically bankrupt and morally unacceptable, that this crafty devil isn’t me, but rather someone else making all that money.  spike

 

 

 

 

Further evidence of market manipulation is seen in that horizontal line at about 135 AM on that chart above, and I think I have an insight as to what is happening.  If you go to the Obama share prices during that period in the table below, you see what I think is evidently a series of trades where someone is buying Romneys and selling Obamas, or vice versa.  The actual data is shown below, in the form of a ton of trades at 59.5 cents, 20 shares at a time in the middle of the night.  

 

I have a notion that perhaps this is caused by a program playing the spread somehow.  When the combined price of Romney plus Obama exceeds a dollar, there is money to be made selling both shares short, since both cannot win, but theoretically both could lose.  That series of 20 share trades in the night could be the short-selling program covering its shorts, or transferring money over from one candidate to the other, to even out the holdings, doing the trades carefully in such a way as to intentionally not stampede the bulls, so that it reloads for profit taking later in the day when humans are awake, getting ready to cause another stampede.

 

If this theory is right, others will catch on soon, and perhaps the evidence will be sudden serial changes going both directions, and more of them occurring.

 

Ohhhh this is so cool.  {8^D  The internet is god.  {8-]

 

spike

 

 

 


Oct 25, 2012 1:01 AM EDT

59

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT

59.4

3


Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT

59.5

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT

59.6

146


Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT

59

153


Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT

59

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT

59.5

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT

59.5

47


Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT

59.5

3


Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT

59.5

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT

59.5

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT

59.5

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT

59.5

45


Oct 25, 2012 1:34 AM EDT

59.6

146


Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT

59.5

5


Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT

59.5

84


Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:36 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:37 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT

59.7

29


Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT

59.7

71


Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:44 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT

59.5

20


Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT

59.5

18


Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT

59.5

2


Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT

59.5

18


Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT

59.5

17


Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT

59.5

16


Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT

59.5

1


Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT

59.5

16


Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT

59.5

16


Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT

59.5

15


Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT

59.5

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  _____  

From: spike <spike66 at att.net>
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 10:12 PM
Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans

 

 

>>There is something I noticed watching InTrade bets for who will win the POTUS elections in a couple weeks.  I need to do some math to convince myself that this is real, but what I noticed is that when the guy from Chicago has a bull run, it takes about an hour or more, but when he has a bear run, it can drop as far as it rose in a few minutes.  Examples are seen below, with a rise of about a point in about an hour, between 644 and about 740, but the bears do their thing right at 921 for about 5 minutes on wacky high trading volume … the other guy’s price chart is a mirror image of this one: his bulls are twitchy and his bears are more leisurely.  So puzzling.

 

spike   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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