[ExI] Fermi Paradox and Transcension

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Sun, Sep 9, 2012 at 3:53 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Given the size of the Universe, it is most unlikely that we are the
> first or only life. But it's possible.
> I think it is pretty far down the list but that is still one possible
> Fermi solution. We are the first.

### I agree it's hard to believe that we are really the first in the
visible Universe, but then the farther out you look, the farther back
in time you see. Maybe the light of many of the farthest galaxies is
already extinguished by trillions of matrioshka brains but the
information about that will take another 10 billion light years to
reach us. All we need to explain as the Fermi paradox is the nearest
couple of hundred of million light-years, still a huge volume of
galaxies but not the whole universe.

I just read that our galaxy is very unusual - it's huge but has a
relatively inactive, low-mass central black hole, maybe another
necessary component to our evolution. So if you add up the unusual
circumstances surrounding Earth (smack in the middle of a very narrow
solar habitable zone, in the middle of a very narrow galactic
habitable zone in the middle of a very unusual galaxy), and the likely
delays in propagation of colonizing aliens (even ones using von
Neumann probes), the case for our temporary uniqueness in the easily
accessible part of the universe is stronger. Also, our own history of
multiple near-misses, major extinctions wiping out most large species,
points towards a fragility of complex life in a hostile universe.

It is possible that there are still major survival filters separating
us from colonizing the galaxy but it's clear we passed a lot of such
filters already.

So, we might make it, Fermi paradox or not.

Rafal