[ExI] Hunger causes riots - not war

[Anders Sandberg]

On 12/09/2012 20:51, John Clark wrote:
>
>
> On Tue, Sep 11, 2012 at 5:25 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com 
> <mailto:pharos at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>     > What's the number one reason we riot?
>
>
> Cartoons and You Tube videos. That's what Muslims would say and that's 
> what the USA's ambassador to Libya would say if he could but he can't 
> because he was torn apart by a religious mob yesterday on September 11.

There is a depressing regularity in the riots in the Muslim world. 
Somebody expresses something rude somewhere, poor people riot and get 
killed (ambassadors are unusual victims). If one were anti-Muslim one 
could easily kill people remotely and safely simply by producing a 
suitable stream of controversial viral media - but it doesn't work the 
other way around.

The reason is largely to be found in the human development indices. When 
people have political freedom, they tend to respond to provocations by 
shouting back or arguing that Somebody Ought to Do Something. When 
people perceive themselves as having a fairly good economic situation 
they have things to lose, so they are unlikely to riot. Conversely, when 
your political freedom is circumscribed any protest against the system 
is going to be illegal - yet you can express your anger by protesting 
against an outside enemy. And if the situation is fairly unbearable, 
then the step to rioting is small. The provocation is irrelevant (and 
often played by various memetic players), what really drives things is 
that these societies for various reasons are not working well and are 
under a lot of pressure.

Plentiful energy and food might lower some pressures, but actually 
worsen others. I shudder at the thought of the Arabian states if oil 
revenues come crashing down.


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University

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