[ExI] Calibrating social models

[Keith Henson]

Re recent discussion, there are ~2 B Muslims.  Six SD out and taking
only the males is still a million.

The ones who do something like 9/11 are rare indeed, far out on
whatever characteristic distribution that makes them devote their
lives to the cause.

But rather than pick on them in this analysis, consider the IRA, now
largely faded into the past.

Why faded?

I don't think it was the Brits being supper smart, even if they did
make some sensible moves.  What happened is that the population
support for the IRA dwindled.  I think the reason is that support for
terrorist or military action depends on the "bleak future" that is
bleak in comparison to the past or the recent past.  If this relative
privation were not the case, India would lead the world in terrorist
events.

So what happened to the IRA?  The Irish women cut their birth rate to
near replacement, same as the rest of Europe.  Why this happens in
developed societies is not really understood though there are lots of
people who are sure they have the answer.  In any case we are very
lucky.

Anyway, with a slower growing population, economic growth in Northern
Ireland got ahead of population growth.  With the future looking
better, social (and other) support for the IRA "warriors" slowly
drained away.

What would make it come back?  Bad economic times, and to a degree you
can see that happening in the current downturn.

Back to the Islamic world, are there any bright spots?  Yes.  Iran's
birth rate is down to replacement.  "Iran is experiencing what may be
one of the most dramatic demographic shifts in human history. Thirty
years ago, after the shah had been driven into exile and the Islamic
Republic was being established, the fertility rate was 6.5. By the
turn of the century, it had dropped to 2.2. Today, at 1.7, it has
collapsed to European levels."

That's less true of Arab countries, though Saudi Arabia for example is
down to 2.4.  On the other hand, the Palestinian territories are at 5.

Based on the psychological mechanisms inherited from the stone age and
the current and historical trends in population and economics, it is
probably possible to construct a reasonably predictive model of where
terrorism and related social disruptions will develop.

And we could test the models against historical data to refine the constants.

Keith