[ExI] Calibrating social models

[BillK]

On Fri, Sep 14, 2012 at 1:00 AM, Keith Henson wrote:
> I don't think it was the Brits being supper smart, even if they did
> make some sensible moves.  What happened is that the population
> support for the IRA dwindled.  I think the reason is that support for
> terrorist or military action depends on the "bleak future" that is
> bleak in comparison to the past or the recent past.  If this relative
> privation were not the case, India would lead the world in terrorist
> events.
>
> So what happened to the IRA?  The Irish women cut their birth rate to
> near replacement, same as the rest of Europe.  Why this happens in
> developed societies is not really understood though there are lots of
> people who are sure they have the answer.  In any case we are very
> lucky.
>
> Anyway, with a slower growing population, economic growth in Northern
> Ireland got ahead of population growth.  With the future looking
> better, social (and other) support for the IRA "warriors" slowly
> drained away.
>
>

Nonsense. There is as much support as ever for the IRA.
The big difference is that they are no longer fighting for a
victimized section of the population. They are a major section (about
40%) of the Northern Ireland coalition government and victimization of
the Republicans is not nearly as bad as it used to be.

IRA terrorism was different from the Muslim terrorists. The IRA was
internal terrorism (including the UK) because nearly half the NI
population was being persecuted by the ruling half (supported by the
UK government).  When that persecution was stopped, the fighting
stopped.  QED.


BillK