[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sun, Apr 28, 2013 at 05:15:05PM -0400, Peter E McAlpine wrote:
> Forget "peak oil" until all government hindrance of exploration and drilling
> is ended.

Peak oil was 2006. Peak total fossil and nuclear fuel and is 2020.
Look at the well drill rate and well decay rate for unconventional
oil and gas (~40%/year), look at the rising costs, dropping EROEI 
and draw your own conclusions.

Hint: "government hindrance" has zero squat to do with why this 
thing will be over shortly. If there is no plan B I'm afraid
you'll be hurting plenty, soon.
 
>  
> 
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
> Sent: Sunday, April 28, 2013 1:11 PM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
> 
>  
> 
> Because of improvements in technology, in particular hydraulic fracturing
> that gets light oil and gas from shale, the Paris based International Energy
> Agency says:
> 
> "By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global
> oil producer overtaking Saudi Arabia [...] The result is a continued fall in
> US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter
> around 2030.  [...] The United States, which currently imports around 20% of
> its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a
> dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy- importing
> countries."
> 
>  
> 
> For more see:
> 
> http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.pdf
> 
>   John K Clark
> 
> 
> 
> 

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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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