[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

[Pete McAlpine]

Nonsense!  The drill rate is at least partially determined by government
dictat!  Absurd to deny it!

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Sent: Monday, April 29, 2013 1:18 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

On Sun, Apr 28, 2013 at 05:15:05PM -0400, Peter E McAlpine wrote:
> Forget "peak oil" until all government hindrance of exploration and 
> drilling is ended.

Peak oil was 2006. Peak total fossil and nuclear fuel and is 2020.
Look at the well drill rate and well decay rate for unconventional oil and
gas (~40%/year), look at the rising costs, dropping EROEI and draw your own
conclusions.

Hint: "government hindrance" has zero squat to do with why this thing will
be over shortly. If there is no plan B I'm afraid you'll be hurting plenty,
soon.
 
>  
> 
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John 
> Clark
> Sent: Sunday, April 28, 2013 1:11 PM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
> 
>  
> 
> Because of improvements in technology, in particular hydraulic 
> fracturing that gets light oil and gas from shale, the Paris based 
> International Energy Agency says:
> 
> "By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest 
> global oil producer overtaking Saudi Arabia [...] The result is a 
> continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America 
> becomes a net oil exporter around 2030.  [...] The United States, 
> which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes 
> all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the 
> trend seen in most other energy- importing countries."
> 
>  
> 
> For more see:
> 
> http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.p
> df
> 
>   John K Clark
> 
> 
> 
> 

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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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